Vietnam Joins Trans-pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP): Opportunities and Challenges

Abstract

Proactively and positively Vietnam has been integrating into the international arena. Joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) is one of the specific strategies of international integration of Vietnam. This agreement is a wider and deeper commitment than the FTAs which Vietnam has signed. TPP refers not only to trade, investment, but also issues of institutions, state-owned enterprises (SOE), labor, environment etc. Thus, joining TPP is consistent with Vietnam in the period of pushing strongly institutional reform, restructuring the economy and shifting the growth paradigm from "width" to "depth" nowadays. TPP brings to Vietnam more opportunities for increased trade, institutional reform, economic restructuring etc... but also the challenges of competition in the domestic market, rules of origin applicable to the export products, technical barriers and the reliance on outside etc. To obtain benefits from joining TPP, Vietnam needs to further reform from inside; otherwise the opportunities of TPP will easily turn into challenges.

Key Words:  Free Trade,  TPP, Vietnam, Vietnam's integration

Introduction

In the first half of the 2000s, with the positive results achieved from international integration, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) has driven the country to proactively and positively deeper international integration. At the Eleventh Congress (in 2011), the CPV has moved from the strategy of "active and positive international economic integration..." announced at the Tenth Congress (2006) to "[...] positive and proactive international integration...". This means that integration is no longer confined in the economic field, but extended to all other areas, including political, defense, security and culture - social ones (CPV, 2011, 2006).

From direction of the leadership of the CPV, Vietnam has actively participated in the new generation of free trade agreements with greater commitment as Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP),

Vietnam - EU Free Trade Agreement, Free Trade Agreement between Vietnam and the Russia-Belarus-Karaztan Customs Union, Vietnam - South Korea Free Trade Agreement, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) etc.

TPP, originally, was initiated by the four countries which are Singapore, Chile, New Zealand and Brunei (P4) in October 2002, concluded negotiations in June, 2005 and in effect from mid-2006. However, only when the US officially declared its participation in the negotiations in September 2008, was this Agreement noticed by many countries. Meanwhile, the agreement that United States announced to join negotiations was completely new. In November 2010, Vietnam declared to participate in negotiations to become a full membership of TPP. So, there were 12 countries to build TPP, attracting the attention of the whole region because of its great size and scale. TPP promises to greatly affect Vietnam because TPP partners account for more than 30% of the total international trade of Vietnam in 2014 (see table 1).

1. Position of Vietnam in TPP compared to other agreements

TPP and the WTO are agreements which open trade to many sides. However, compared to the WTO, TPP opens deeper and much broader. For example, TPP countries pledged to reduce tariffs to almost 100% for their mutual goods with very short route-unlike the WTO reduce tariffs to some of items in a relatively long period. Regulation on origin of goods in the TPP is also stricter. For example, textile products must be yarn-forward rule of origin. Regarding the scope of commitment, if the WTO concerns negotiations on market, trade in goods, services, and investment and intellectual property rights; TPP, beside the fields that WTO concerns, also extends to many other areas. In particular, the issues that Vietnam has never negotiated before like government procurement, state-owned enterprises, workers-union, and environment. According to the content Vietnam has negotiated, TPP is different from FTAs that Vietnam signed with partners on the level of integration, which is the shortest route to reduce all tariffs to 0%.

Significantly, the position of Vietnam when Vietnam negotiated the TPP was quite different from the one when Vietnam joined the WTO. Vietnam participated in the negotiations from the beginning to establish rules for all members with no exceptions. If countries want Vietnam to open its market to them, then they must also open their markets to Vietnam. While the WTO negotiations of acceding is one-way, Vietnam who must comply with the rules built. WTO members had the right to request Vietnam to open its market until they agreed while Vietnam did not have the same right to ask them to open their markets.

Compared with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), TPP and RCEP generally have similar goals which are trade liberalization and economic integration. However, competition between the two institutions can cause division of countries in ASEAN. TPP and RCEP in nature are led by one of the two largest economies in the world with two different development models ie. The US and China. This not only reflects the competition for influence in Asia - Pacific, but also shows their different approaches.

TPP model puts priority on quality and high standards of labor law, environmental protection and intellectual property rights, while RCEP refers to appropriate standards and limits trade barriers for each country. It is hardly RCEP to require high standards of labour, environment, state-owned enterprises because China is also facing many problems on these factors.

Currently, among 12 members of TPP, Vietnam signed FTAs with Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Brunei, Malaysia (within the framework of ASEAN plus) and Chile (bilateral), so the impact from TPP is mainly from the US (because Peru has small relationship with Vietnam, Canada and Mexico of which trade accounts for less than 1% of the Vietnam trade) (see table 1).

Table 1: Vietnam's trade with partners in TPP in 2014 

Source: Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2015.

2. Opportunities

Vietnam's economy is a transforming economy, moving toward a developed market. Therefore, the international integration and participation of regional institutions have a strong impact on the economic transformation of Vietnam.

Firstly, the opportunity for institutional reform, and economic restructuring.

Since Vietnam gained a full membership in the WTO (in 2007), Vietnam has made many changes in economic institutions but institutional quality remains a major barrier to development: poor transparency; discrimination between state-owned enterprises and private ones; inefficient public investment; ineffective management of government etc...

TPP, which is also an agreement with broad and deep commitment to the non-commercial sector, has a great impact on institutional reform in Vietnam. This also creates a pressure for Vietnam to build a complete legal system.

The information about the content of negotiations showed that Vietnam is facing great pressure which are elimination of all tariffs, opening market, tightening the standards of protection of intellectual property, setting up labor standards, and building a transparent government etc... to aim at removing trade barriers, enabling goods, services and capitalism to circulate in intra-block; reassuring investors in a stable institutional environment... In particular, the requirement of intellectual property protection is improved, using harsher sanctions when members violate free trade rule; building regulations to control public investment, publicizing the entire national budget, government procurement; implementing the right of labor freedom, protecting workers (Pham Duy Nghia, 2013). At first glance, it may be challenging, but in fact it is a great opportunity for Vietnam because these requirements are targets that Vietnam aims to achieve in the future.

If Vietnam effectuates the commitment of TPP - most of which are given by the US, Vietnam will be able to meet the US standards of full-fledged market economy and almost recognized by the West as a full market economy. This will facilitate Vietnam in international trade, particularly to overcome barriers dumping, subsidies and other barriers not only in the US market but also in other markets in the world. The lending institution will also reduce the risk assessment of Vietnam's market to a reasonable level; foreign investment will increase; also contributing to changing the economic structure.

The commitment from TPP will stimulate Vietnamese enterprises and people to learn about it. Vietnamese businesses' acknowledgement of integration is much higher than before. Moreover, unlike the negotiations of WTO or ASEAN Free Trade Agreement - AFTA, TPP negotiations open up opportunities for businesses' voice because this is the case when Vietnam involved from the beginning to build common institutions of a cohesive unit. Moreover, TPP will force businesses to pay attention and understand the rules of the game when the market is expanded significantly, especially to the US market while the tariffs rate is committed to reduce, giving opportunities for the development of industries such as footwear, textiles, furniture, and assembly components.

Particularly, when joining TPP, members will be forced to give priority to the state owned sector. Therefore, the state-owned enterprises in Vietnam faced real competition because there will be no protection like today. TPP poses a clear legal basis for not accepting preferential treatment to any particular business with a separate content of SOEs. If Vietnam let SOEs avoid competition, and give them a lot of privileges like accessing to land and credit from the state's resources today, there will appear interest groups to control the economic resources of the country. TPP requires transparency and equal treatment for all domestic and foreign enterprises to participate in the game. The state owned enterprise reform is not a new issue when Vietnam joins TPP, but TPP are creating pressure to accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the issue of equity, negative debt settlement of these enterprises. Hopefully, institutional reform will be accelerated; the business environment will be healthier to promote development of private sector with TPP.

In addition, joining in TPP will open opportunities for Vietnam to strengthen economic ties with countries such as the United State of America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Thus, Vietnam has the opportunity to reduce economic dependence on China and expand and diversify the suppliers of high quality and sustainable products instead of concentrating on import of low and average quality - goods from China. Moreover, due to the fact that origin of products is required being among country members of TPP, Vietnamese enterprises will have to shift to import inputs from members of TPP.

Secondly, opportunities for export and import of goods.

Opportunity for increasing the trade turnover of Vietnam chance is very clear because trade barriers must be removed, especially with the huge market that Vietnam does not have free trade agreements such as the US.

- For export: Because the impact of TPP is mainly from the United States, this part of paper will focus on analyzing the impact of the US partner. Some major export products of Vietnam to the United States are textiles, agricultural products, footwear, furniture, and so on.

Regarding textiles, the main competitors of Vietnam in the U.S market are China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh which are under MFN rates (about 5-25%), and while if the TPP is in effect, Vietnam will be taxed at 0% from the current level of 7-15%. Regarding footwear, Vietnam could increase exports sharply since the US import duty is quite high (about 12%). However, for the two commodities, Vietnam must meet the very strict standard of origin of TPP. So, in order to catch this opportunity, Vietnam's enterprises need to adjust to the input supply chain (D.N.Tien, 2012).

Regarding Vietnam's furniture, currently the US has applied a fairly low tariff rates (0.02%), Vietnam will not have many opportunities to increase exports of this product. Similarly with seafood, current tax rates in the United States is relatively low (0.01% -0.07%, except for seafood processing at 5%), Vietnam does not have large margin for increasing export of this product.

Regarding food and food products, the developed countries (USA, Japan) often protect their products with a high level subsidy in their countries. When the conditions of protection are reduced or eliminated due to participating in TPP, Vietnam will have chance to export agricultural products to developed countries like the US, Japan, Canada...

For example, rice will have a great opportunity to export to the United States, Japan when the competitors of Vietnam - India, Thailand, Cambodia who do not join the TPP will not enjoy low tariffs like Vietnam. While import duties on Vietnam's rice in the US, Japan are quite high (about 17%), TPP will have a major impact on this product. However, Vietnam's rice needs to improve its quality much higher to be consumed in developed countries.

• For imports: When TPP comes into effect, Vietnam's import tariffs on products from the member countries will decline compared to current tariffs; the products of many countries have opportunity to come into Vietnam's market. The positive point of this is that TPP members are developing much higher than Vietnam, their level of technology development is more than Vietnam's. So it is very good for Vietnam to import machinery products from these countries. Vietnam has conditions for technological innovation, economic restructuring and improving the trade balance because Vietnam has huge export trade surplus with these countries (the US, Australia). If imports from these markets are increased, imports from other markets such as China, ASEAN will be decreased (D.N.Tien, 2012).

• Regarding trade in services: Many countries participating in TPP negotiations like the US, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore ...  have developed service sector much higher than Vietnam has. Therefore, TPP will put a great impact on service sector of Vietnam. Specifically, to the finance and bank sector, these countries will make high demands on market opening in the banking and financial system in Vietnam which is undergoing consolidation and began reaching out to some countries such as Laos, Cambodia. Vietnam has not yet set any target to expand to markets of other countries, so benefits of opening and accessing to markets and financial and banking services are not high to Vietnam. However, the local banks have the opportunity to promote cooperation with strategic investors from developed countries like the US, Japan, Australia, Singapore,... in order to improve competitiveness (D.N.Tien, 2012). Nonetheless, the service sector of Vietnam must quickly prepare the foundation, restructure to improve operational efficiency, otherwise the opportunities will become challenges.

Thirdly, the opportunity of attracting foreign investment

Vietnam is the country having comparative advantage in production like cheap labor, incentives for investors. Therefore it will encourage investors to bring their machines into production in Vietnam for export back to their countries because the tariff was reduced to 0%, or they can take advantage of the huge market that Vietnam is participating.

Many developed countries like the US, Japan, Australia, New Zealand which are strongly competed for their agricultural products must also consider redirecting investment in agriculture (possibly to Vietnam). Since then Vietnam could absorb agricultural production technology and production for export back to their markets. Therefore, Vietnam will have the opportunity to participate in global and regional agricultural production chains.

On the other hand, to textile products, leather and footwear, Vietnam has opportunities, but also faces many challenges if Vietnam cannot prove rules, standards, certification of origin. TPP rule of origin will bring investment flows from China, South Korea to Vietnam in order that investors can get benefit from TPP because Vietnam has not yet been self-sufficient in input materials for these products and often has to import from countries such as China, South Korea and ASEAN countries.

Regarding the textile sector, to be self-sufficient in materials is a major difficulty. Since investment in fiber production or dyeing plants requires special attention to wastewater treatment, environmental safety...; it is not easy for a business to invest such a huge capital in Vietnam. Therefore, according to the current trend of FDI, more likely Korean and Chinese businesses will invest in fiber and dyeing to get incentives from TPP. The fact that many foreign enterprises have pushed up their investment in Vietnam's garment industry like Kyungbang (Korea), Texhong Textile Group Ltd., (Hong Kong - China), Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd., Sunrise (China), etc.,  to take a shortcut to TPP has proved this. So this is an opportunity to attract FDI but also a challenge because TPP will primarily benefit foreign businesses investing in Vietnam, rather than domestic enterprises. Furthermore, the investment sectors are not the sectors that Vietnam give priority for investment in Vietnam today.

In summary, TPP or any other agreements only provide opportunities for businesses and the economy, if Vietnam knows how to create advantage to be able to participate in the global supply chain. Just setting a small position in the supply chain, it means Vietnam is involving itself in the game and become its master. The question is if Vietnam could increase the competitiveness of enterprises.

3. Challenges

It needs to say at first that the negotiation of agreements with broad and deep commitment to Vietnam like TPP is not easy. The problems will come largely from the United States. Vietnam has to overcome very sensitive issues of government procurement, labor, environment, state-owned enterprises etc...

Firstly, TPP sets new stricter regulations of intellectual property, human rights and labor laws.

Under the domination of the United States, TPP poses commitment to standards and protection of workers' rights, ie., the right to form associations and unions. Vietnam is developing a socialist-oriented market economy, with specific values unlike the US and other countries. Therefore, the application of requirements or value of American standard is a big challenge.

Recently, a number of worker strikes in Vietnam are happening more frequently and come from very basic issues such as wages and working conditions. However, the trade unions of Vietnam are not strong enough to protect the interests of workers. In fact, the income of many trade union officials is much dependent on employers, so it is difficult for them to resist pressure from employers.

Regarding the right to form associations of workers: Vietnam Constitution states clearly about the free right to form associations. Currently in Vietnam, only Trade Unions represent workers. Trade Unions are under the leadership of the Party and State. This is a difference from other countries in TPP. So that Vietnam Trade Unions will have to face to renew the mandates and modes of operation.

The issue of intellectual property, protection of geographical indications like trademark protection will put pressure on and require enterprises to register trademarks such as Phu Quoc fish sauce, Buon Me Thuot coffee, Da Lat flowers etc... Also, Vietnam is still limited in the issue of copyright protection because the legal system of Vietnam is still flawed. Vietnam is continuously in the list of countries under the surveillance of intellectual property rights of the United States, partly because the counterfeit products are still widely consumed in the market, including online trademark violence.

Secondly, the tighter conditions of Rules of origin in TPP

Vietnam has to face with the requirement of rules of origin of TPP. This Agreement requires "intra-TPP" origin of which the products will be preferential. While Vietnam's supporting industries are limited, and mainly imports raw materials from countries outside TPP, it is difficult for these products to have TPP preferences. The export products of which Vietnam is strong at are textiles, footwear, furniture, electronics, ... using mostly imported raw materials from China, Korea and other countries in the region. Vietnam's economy is mainly for export processing, so this is a big disadvantage for Vietnam. Many opinions assume that, if the application of rules of origin of "yarn- forward” for textiles in the TPP, most of Vietnam's textiles will not be exempted because they are mainly made from China's fabric, Korea's threads, and accessories from some Southeast Asian countries which are not participating in TPP. If Vietnam cannot change the source of imported materials, it will be difficult for Vietnam to receive tariff references under TPP. To wood products, Vietnam is heavily dependent on imported logs (over 60% of the product) and supporting materials, which will make it difficult for Vietnam to meet new regulations of the US.

To cope with this challenge, Vietnam considered to developing material areas and supporting industries. Vietnam set the plans of material areas, and invest in supporting industries as previously the government has set out the plans. More than 10 years ago, the government had a plan to invest in the raw material for textile industry but when deploying in reality with many difficulties, this plan could not finish. Regarding supporting textile industry, textile and dyeing factories will enact a large amount of waste into the environment, enterprises will need a great amount of capital for these factories.

TPP will force enterprises to redirect their business and markets in order that once TPP goes in force, they can make use of the tariff reductions. The domestic industry needs to reform, optimize production, and increase competitiveness to deal with the massive intrusion of cheap and good quality products from other countries.

Thirdly, the competitive pressure in Vietnam's market will increase

Participating in TPP is considered to have more conditions of commitment than the WTO and FTAs that Vietnam has signed. The impact from the opening of market for the countries participating in the agreement will make foreign competition to Vietnam's goods increase. Most of the economies in the current TPP have structures of goods import and export supplement to Vietnam. Thus, competition for goods is not significant. However, the greatest pressure of competition comes from products of services, distribution and retail. Joining TPP are many developed countries in the service and retail sector like the US, Australia, Japan, Canada, Singapore ... When the preferences of the Agreement are opened, the current service sector of Vietnam which is still limited to foreign investors will hardly be maintained. The leading banking and financial corporations, insurance corporations and retailers will invest in Vietnam, and compete strongly with Vietnam's corporations which lack of experience compared to the world. However, it is also an opportunity for enterprises who know how to work and rise well.

In addition, competition for processed food or agricultural products will be fierce. Although Vietnam is an agricultural country, with many agricultural products leading exporter, but the quality and competitiveness of agricultural products are not high. Food products of developed countries like the US, Australia, New Zealand have a very strong competition. When the rate of agricultural products imported from Vietnam fall to 0%, it will be very hard for the field of agriculture and animal husbandry of Vietnam to compete with partners such as the US, Australia. For example, beef from Australia and the United States has dominated many countries' markets around the world, threatening Vietnam's market.

Fourthly, creating an equal business environment among economic sectors

Joining TPP, Vietnam will be pressed to create a completely equal business environment among economic sectors. However, this may also be a challenge: firstly, Vietnam is hard to do this within the next 2 to 3 years because large interest groups in Vietnam will hinder this process; secondly, Vietnam has put public sector in a dominant position in the economy. If the public sector competes fairly with other sectors without restructuring for efficiency, the possibility of failure in the great competition will threaten the dominant role of this sector. This could also affect the political orientation of Vietnam.

Fifthly, technical barriers of many countries are more sophisticated

As tariff barriers are removed, the countries will have to find other ways to protect their goods by cleverly concealed methods under the technical, labor or environment standards. Therefore, it is possible that some countries will adopt more anti-dumping duties and subsidies to goods of Vietnam especially in the agricultural sector. So far, the US has nearly 10 dumping cases of the products of Vietnam.

Vietnam's enterprises will have to keep in mind when tariffs are reduced to 0%, Vietnam should have effective measures to prevent overheating growth in number and decrease in price because TPP might have regulations of trade defense allowing the United States to apply safeguard measures/ anti-dumping. Besides, the possibility of technical barriers and sanitary and phytosanitary will increasingly be higher for goods of Vietnam while Vietnam cannot apply barriers to goods of other partners.

International competition also requires Vietnam to build a strong judicial system, strong arbitration system support and powerful judicial system to be able to cope with the international commercial litigation. There are many international litigation cases that Vietnam hired foreign consultants with a lot of money.

Sixthly, the trade deficit is likely to increase and more dependent on foreign countries

Generally, competitiveness of Vietnam's products is not high, in the near future, if Vietnam's enterprises have no plans to prepare, foreign products will have the opportunity to overflow into Vietnam's market to take advantage of the market of 90 million people. In addition, import duty of machinery, technology products will also fall down, Vietnam tends to increase imports of these products from developed countries like the US and Japan. Additionally, foreign investment in Vietnam will increase, bringing the movement of the technologies, machinery and equipments from outside. In fact, Vietnam's trade deficit has increased sharply after Vietnam joined the WTO, it has dropped in recent years when the global and Vietnam' economies face difficulties.

Vietnam has an economy with the very large opening rate of ImportExport/ GDP. If in 2006, opening rate of the economy is 139% of GDP; one year after joining the WTO (2007), the opening rate of the economy was 156%, and by 2011 was 170% of GDP (NQThuan and the Group, 2013). For economies with such a high opening rate, the economic growth depends largely on the volatility of the external factors. By participating in these agreements, the opening rate of Vietnam's economy will surely be greater because the first effects of this agreement are commercial activities of the country. Vietnam will have to learn to respond quickly to external fluctuations, even the sudden stop of input source or the application of anti-dumping tax or subsidy for a certain product.

Conclusion

Because the level of commitment of TPP is very high, joining TPP will surely have a great impact on Vietnam. Impact of TPP is not only on trade and investment but also on many institutional issues of market economy. This is an important impact in the context that Vietnam is restructuring and transforming its economic growth model. Therefore, Vietnam should take full advantage of TPP for restructuring, innovating of growth model. In the field of production and trade, joining in TPP will open up huge opportunities for Vietnam's footwear and textile sector. So, in the short and medium term, this is still the key export sector of Vietnam. Vietnam should focus on improving the added value of this sector by developing the supporting sector of textiles and footwear, and materials, and focus on investing in product design. Finally, to take advantage of the opportunities and cope with challenges, Vietnam needs to improve the competitiveness of the country. If Vietnam does not do well, the opportunities will turn into challenges and vice versa.

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Source:

Nguyen Xuan Trung

Vietnam Institute for Indian and Southwest Asian Studies, No. 1, Lieu Giai Street, Ba Dinh District, Hanoi
Email: trungnguyenxuan@gmail.com